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Tuesday, March 31, 2020




USPS ON THE FRONT LINES
COMPILATION AND COMMENTARY
BY LUCY WARNER
AUGUST 31, 2020


IN THIS TIME OF NATIONAL EMERGENCY OF ONE OF THE WORST KINDS, A DEADLY AND HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS ILLNESS, I HAVE BEEN MONITORING WHAT GOVERNMENTS FROM THE CITY TO THE NATIONAL LEVELS ARE DOING FOR MY OWN PEACE OF MIND AND TO DO MY LITTLE BIT TO HELP INFORM THE PUBLIC.

A FEW DAYS AGO I HEARD THE MENTION OF A POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF POSTAL SERVICE, WHICH WAS DISTURBING TO ME. I DID FIND STATEMENTS FROM THE USPS WEBSITE THAT ARE UPDATED DAILY AS NEEDED, AND TWO ARTICLES. USPS MAINTAINS THE SITE WITH ONGOING UPDATES FOR THE PUBLIC, AND SO FAR THEY DON’T MENTION A CLOSURE.

FROM THE SIDE OF THE NEWS SOURCES, THOUGH, HERE IS WHAT I FOUND. I USED THE SEARCH TERMS “USPS CLOSE.”

THE FIRST ARTICLE BELOW IS THE MOST RECENT INFORMATION FROM THE USPS ITSELF. IF THEY ARE ABOUT TO FALL APART DUE TO LACK OF FUNDS, THEY AREN’T ADMITTING IT HERE.

USPS Continuity of Operations Update
March 19, 2020

The Postal Service has developed localized continuity of operations plans that are employed in the case of emergencies to help ensure that the nation's postal system continues to function for the American people. With a longstanding history of quickly adapting its operational plans to changing conditions, the Postal Service maintains steady communications with mailers during natural disasters or other events that require emergency responses and advises residential customers, business mailers, and international mailers with regard to postal facility disruptions that may impact delivery in an affected area via its USPS Service Alerts webpage at: https://about.usps.com/newsroom/service-alerts/.

In the event they are required, the activation of localized continuity of operations plans depends on the specific effects of an emergency in an impacted area. Due to the variance in possibilities and factors, it would be impossible to predict what the effect of such emergencies would be on a specific customers' mailing prior to the event, but the planning enables us to continue or quickly reestablish mail operations in regions facing the impact of strong hurricanes, flooding, wildfires, etc., and they have been prepared to respond to pandemic-related circumstances as well. As a result, we recommend that customers refer to USPS Service Alerts for service-disruption updates. Another key component of our communications portion of USPS contingency plans remains the Industry Alert.

For those business mailers who utilize the Business Service Network (BSN), we encourage them to continue to maintain the line of communication with their representative on changes to the postal system. If a customer or mailing partner needs to shut down its operations due to the current situation, they should contact their BSN contact, Sales contact, or their local Business Mail Entry contact to discuss their plans. These local contacts will notify the Districts, Area, and Headquarters of any needed assistance or broader impacts.

The Postal Service continues to use its existing processes for many of the more common impacts customers are concerned about. Some questions that have been raised are:

• How is USPS handling mail for closed businesses?
Mail on the delivery route is returned to the Delivery unit and will be held for 10 days under current policies. Customers can request a temporary hold for their mail up to 30 days. Caller Box customers should contact their local office to discuss how they will be handling the pickup of this volume. Any high volume customer will be contacted to discuss pickup options as well.

• How is USPS delivering mail under shelter in place declarations?
The Postal Service is classified as an essential government service operation, which allows us to continue operations.

• How safe is the mail and mail transport equipment?
Current Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) guidance continues to indicate there is no evidence the virus is spreading through the mail. According to WHO, the likelihood of an infected person contaminating commercial goods is low, and the risk of catching the virus from a package that has been moved, traveled, and exposed to different conditions and temperatures is also low. This guidance remains true for mail transport equipment.

• Is the USPS experiencing capacity issues due to reduced airline routes?
There are no domestic air capacity issues at this time. The Postal Service continues to work with International air carriers and contract air carriers to keep mail moving.

Industry and commercial customers can email questions or concerns about COVID-19 and the mail to industryfeedback@usps.gov with COVID-19 in the subject line. Mailers can also sign up for Industry Alerts at industryfeedback@usps.gov.

For more information, see the USPS Coronavirus Statement at About.usps.com/newsroom.


March 23, 2020
COVID-19 CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS UPDATE

Safety of the Mail

The United States Postal Service has a dedicated COVID-19 Command Response leadership team that is focusing on employee, operational, business, and customer continuity during this unprecedented epidemic. We continue to follow the strategies and measures recommended by the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention (CDC) and public health departments. The CDC has information available on its website at https://www.coronavirus.gov that provides the latest information about COVID-19.

To reduce health risks, we also are temporarily modifying customer signature capture procedures. While maintaining a safe, appropriate distance, employees will request the customer’s first initial and last name so that the employee can enter the information on the electronic screen or hard copy items such as return receipts, PS Forms 3811 and 3829. For increased safety, employees will politely ask the customer to step back a safe distance or close the screen door/door so that they may leave the item in the mail receptacle or appropriate location by the customer door.

Importantly, the CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html ), the World Health Organization (https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses ), as well as the Surgeon General have indicated that there is currently no evidence that COVID-19 is being spread through the mail.

Specifically, according to the World Health Organization, “the likelihood of an infected person contaminating commercial goods is low and the risk of catching the virus that causes COVID-19 from a package that has been moved, travelled, and been exposed to different conditions and temperature is also low.” And according to the CDC, “in general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from products or packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient temperatures. Coronaviruses are generally thought to be spread most often by respiratory droplets. Currently there is no evidence to support transmission of COVID-19 associated with imported goods and there have not been any cases of COVID-19 in the United States associated with imported goods.”

Industry and commercial customers can email questions or concerns about COVID-19 and the mail to industryfeedback@usps.gov with COVID-19 in the subject line. Mailers can also sign up for Industry Alerts at industryalert@usps.gov. For more information, see the USPS Coronavirus Statement at about.usps.com/newsroom.



ABOUT THAT ANNOUNCEMENT OF AN EXPECTED SHUTTERING OF OUR POST OFFICES, I FOUND THE FOLLOWING FROM BARRONS.COM AND FORBES. THE DATING OF THESE TWO ARTICLES CAUSES ME TO WONDER WHICH IS THE BEST INFORMATION, THOUGH, AS THE PIECE FROM BARRON’S, DATED MARCH 30, 2020, STATES THAT THE USPS IS PROTECTED FROM CLOSURE BY THE NEWLY ENACTED SPENDING BILL, AND THE NEXT DAY’S ARTICLE FROM FORBES SAYS THAT IT ISN’T, AND MAY HAVE TO CLOSE ITS’ DOORS IN THIS NEXT JUNE. IN READING MORE CLOSELY I FOUND THE DIFFERENCE OF OPINION, FROM THE STANDPOINT OF THE POSTAL SERVICE. THE MONEY, $10,000,000,000, COMES IN THE FORM OF AVAILABLE LOANS RATHER THAN CASH, AND THEY ARE ALREADY HEAVILY IN DEBT.

Why the Stimulus Package Includes $10 Billion for the U.S. Postal Service
By Al Root
Updated March 30, 2020 8:16 am ET /
Original March 29, 2020 9:46 am ET

The Cares Act, the $2 trillion stimulus package signed into law on Friday, is a massive shot in the arm for a moribund economy, with payments and loan guarantees to workers, small businesses, and industries hard hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. The U.S. Postal Service is included in the act too—it allows USPS to borrow up to $10 billion from the Treasury.

The government wants to ensure mail and packages keep flowing during this unprecedented period of economic pause. It’s a necessary step given that logistics providers are the lifeblood of any economy.

“As Americans are urged to stay home, the importance of the mail will only grow as people will need access to communications and essential packages such as prescription drugs and other necessities,” the USPS said in a statement. “This is particularly true in rural and other areas.”

National post carriers are declaring force majeure*, suspending service, or otherwise making significant adjustments,” iDrive Logistics strategist Matthew White tells Barron’s.

(Force majeure is invoked when an entity can’t fulfill a contract because of unforeseeable circumstances.)

Deutsche Post (ticker: DPW. Germany), owner of DHL, for instance, recently reserved the right to modify services—effectively declaring force majeure—potentially delaying international shipments. One issue the lack of commercial flights which typically carry freight along with people.

That isn’t the case in the U.S. “Carriers in the United States are handling this crisis with relative aplomb,” adds White. “It is highly likely that the USPS’ longstanding agreement with FedEx Express could be further leveraged, as well as cargo assets of domestic airlines.”

It’s a difficult operating environment, to say the least. The USPS, for its part, is grateful for federal support but says it could need more.

“The Postal Service remains concerned that this measure will be insufficient to enable the Postal Service to withstand the significant downturn in our business that could directly result from the pandemic,” a post office representative told Barron’s in an emailed statement. “Under a worst-case scenario, such downturn could result in the Postal Service having insufficient liquidity to continue operations.”

It isn’t clear how mail volumes have been impacted by the outbreak, but the USPS statement struck a very cautious tone. It’s possible that with the economy slowing, volume could decrease as things like direct mail marketing decline. But letter carriers are still delivering mail—including social security checks and medicine—six days a week.

In recent quarters, the Postal Service lost money, but mainly because of Byzantine accounting rules that required the post office to pre-fund retiree health care benefits. All U.S. companies pre-fund pension benefits. But the USPS is the only one required to pre-fund retiree health care benefits.

Retiree health care benefits and pensions are two different things. General Electric (GE), for instance, has a large retiree pension. That isn’t surprising because the company is more than 120 years old. GE has, very roughly, a $90 billion pension obligation and more than $70 billion in assets already set aside.

GE also has more than $5 billion in promised retiree benefits, but less than $300 million set aside to meet them. GE, as well as most U.S. companies, pay retiree health benefits as they are incurred.

The problem for the USPS is [that] the prefunding requirement is a claim on cash flow. And cash—as investors are learning these days—is king. The USPS still generates free cash flow. Free cash flow approximates earnings, but backs out* noncash expenses, such as the health care prefunding.

The loan from the stimulus package isn’t a bailout. And, in normal times, the Postal Service gets no direct support from the federal government. The government says money in the CARES Act can be used for operating expenses but not to repay debt. What’s more, any loans received are intended to help speed the delivery of medical products while protecting the safety of postal workers.

The post office has a universal service mandate, and it costs the same to mail a letter to a rural community as it does to mail one in densely populated urban areas. That pricing reality is one of the constant tensions the post office has to live with and manage through. The USPS doesn’t get to set the price for a stamp either. Congress, effectively, does that. The USPS can negotiate rates for parcel delivery with businesses, but it’s pricing situation is unique in American logistics industry.*


The USPS situation bears watching, because—along with mail being essential for the country during the pandemic—it has implications for publicly traded players. As White points out, USPS has partnerships and competes with publicly traded players including FedEx (FDX) and United Parcel Service (UPS).

At this point of the pandemic, the importance of logistics is evident in the stock prices of transportation industry players.

The Russell 3000 Truckers Index—which includes firms like Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) and J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)—is down less than 15% year to date, better than the 24% drop of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the 21% drop of the S&P 500.

UPS and FedEx have outperformed too. UPS is down 17% year to date. FedEx, on the other hand, is off 20%.

The post office, of course, isn’t publicly traded. Investors don’t have a chance to ask management about the state of operations. But additional support hinted at in the USPS statement could come in the form of more loans, changing accounting rules, or, perhaps, more power over pricing.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com



EVER CONSCIOUS AS THE POST OFFICE MUST BE OF ITS’ PRECARIOUS FINANCES, IT HAS ISSUED A WARNING, AND ONE THAT I DON’T WANT TO SEE COME TO PASS. I HAVE ALWAYS DEPENDED ON THE MAIL SERVICE, AS ALL PEOPLE WITHOUT DEEP POCKETS DO. I FORESEE ANOTHER EMERGENCY FINANCE BILL TO APPEAR BEFORE THE JUNE USPS CLOSURE OCCURS. SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS IS ALREADY WARNING OF VARIOUS SHORTFALLS IN THE ALMOST TWO TRILLION DOLLAR BILL THAT WAS PASSED LAST WEEK, AND I’LL BET THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.

PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS REFERRED TO IT AS A “STIMULUS” BILL, BUT WHAT IS NEEDED IS A BAILOUT, NOT FOR HUGE CORPORATIONS WHICH CAN SURELY JUGGLE THEIR FINANCES SO AS TO MEET THEIR BILLS EVEN IF WE HAVE ANOTHER DEPRESSION, BUT FOR ORDINARY PEOPLE, SMALLER BUSINESSES, HOSPITALS, CITY HALLS, THE USPS, POWER PLANTS AND SO ON. BUT NO, THE CONGRESS GRANTED NO MONEY TO THE USPS EXCEPT IN THE FORM OF LOANS. THE POST OFFICE MAY NOT SEND MISSILES TOWARD OUR ENEMIES, BUT THEIR ROLE IN A FUNCTIONING CIVILIZED SOCIETY IS CRUCIAL.

USPS warns it might have to shutter by June as $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package provides no funding
BY
NICOLE GOODKIND
March 30, 2020 11:30 AM EST

Subscribe to Outbreak, a free daily newsletter roundup of stories on the coronavirus pandemic—and its impact on global business.

Fifty years ago, a postal worker strike halted mail delivery. The eight-day strike, carried out by 150,000 letter carriers across 30 cities, prompted then-President Richard Nixon to declare an emergency and send in the National Guard to deliver mail.

“The United States Postal System is a vital element of our entire communications system. The poor depend heavily upon it for medical services and also for government assistance,” Nixon said in an address to the nation. “Veterans depend on it for their compensation checks. The elderly depend on it for their Social Security checks.”

Today, the Postal Service is just as essential: It delivers about 1 million lifesaving medications each year and serves as the only delivery link to Americans living in rural areas. Working with other delivery services like UPS, the agency supports $1.7 trillion in sales and 7.3 million private sector workers year, and this year will prove essential to delivering the 2020 Census to citizens as well as any vote-by-mail initiatives.

The USPS is the federal government’s most favorably viewed agency, with an approval rating of 90%.

Yet once again, the USPS is in crisis mode.


With a negative net worth of $65 billion and an additional $140 billion in unfunded liabilities, the USPS originally expected to run out of liquidity by 2021 without intervention. That has accelerated rapidly because of COVID-19. Fewer people and businesses are sending mail because of the outbreak, which could hasten the decline of the Postal Service and close its doors as early as June, officials warned.


TERMS ENCOUNTERED IN THESE ARTICLES


DECLARING FORCE-MAJEURE* -- BARRONS

Force-Majeure Clause Law and Legal Definition
Force Majeure clause is a provision in a contract that excuses a party from not performing its contractual obligations that becomes impossible or impracticable, due to an event or effect that the parties could not have anticipated or controlled. These events include natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and other "acts of God," as well as uncontrollable events such as war or terrorist attack. Force majeure clauses are meant to excuse a party provided the failure to perform could not be avoided by the exercise of due diligence and care.


BACKS OUT* NONCASH EXPENSES -- BARRONS
QUOTATION: “Free cash flow approximates earnings, but backs out* noncash expenses, such as the health care prefunding.”

(transitive) To reverse (a vehicle) from a confined space.
He backed out of the garage;
(computing, transitive) To undo (a change).
“I had to back out the changes . . . .”

TO “BACK OUT,” USED AS A TRANSITIVE VERB, IN COMPUTERESE – DEFINITION #5 -- MEANS TO “UNDO,” ACCORDING TO WIKTIONARY, WHICH WAS THE CLOSEST SOURCE I FOUND ON THE PHRASE AFTER TOO MANY MINUTES OF DIGGING. HE “BACKED OUT THE CHANGES.” I WOULDN’T THINK THAT PRE-FUNDED EXPENSES COULD BE “UNDONE,” THOUGH.

THEREFORE, I WONDER IF THE WRITER ISN’T REFERRING HERE TO THE MANEUVER I USED TO DO TO AVOID OVERDRAWING MY ACCOUNT, WHICH IS TO DEDUCT AHEAD OF TIME A “SET ASIDE,” WHICH IS THE EXPECTED AMOUNT FOR A KNOWN FUTURE EXPENSE IN MY CHECK REGISTER, RATHER THAN DOING IT LATER IN THE MONTH WHEN THE PAYMENT WOULD ACTUALLY HAVE TO COME OUT. WHEN THE TIME CAME TO PAY IT, I WOULD ADD IT BACK IN AGAIN AS NEEDED. AT THAT POINT, MONEY TO PAY IT MIGHT BE SHORT, OTHERWISE.

THAT IS WHAT MAKES SENSE TO ME ON THIS “BACK OUT” CONCEPT. AT ANY RATE, WHEN I SAW THAT I NEEDED TO DIG THE HOLE DEEPER IN ORDER TO UNDERSTAND, BY READING ABOUT “FREE CASH FLOW,” WHICH IS A VERY SPECIFIC ACCOUNTING PROCEDURE -- I DID FIND THAT IN INVESTOPEDIA -- BUT THE TERM “BACK OUT” EXPENSES DOES NOT APPEAR. NO MATTER WHERE I TURN ON THIS ABSTRUSE SUBJECT, I FIND MORE WORDS TO DEFINE. THOSE WHO JUST LOVE MATH WOULD ENJOY READING THAT ARTICLE FOR FUN. FOR YOUR OWN SEARCHING DELIGHT, GO TO: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/freecashflow.asp.

A TECHNIQUE LIKE “SET ASIDES,” CAN BE IMPORTANT IF THE AMOUNT OF INCOME IS CHRONICALLY BARELY SUFFICIENT, OR WHEN IT IS UNPREDICTABLE SUCH AS IN SALES WORK, GIG WORK OR TEMPORARY WORK. IN THE CASE OF THE POST OFFICE, IT DEPENDS FOR ITS’ OPERATING FUNDS ON THE ACTUAL MONEY IT TAKES IN DURING THE DAY’S BUSINESS WITHOUT EVEN A GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY, AND OPERATING WITHIN WHAT HAS TO BE A VERY HIGH COST. PAYING INTO A HEALTH CARE FUND AT THE END MIGHT BE IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT SUCH AN ACCOUNTING TECHNIQUE, ALTHOUGH A REQUIREMENT TO PREFUND SOUNDS LIKE A MEASURE THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WOULD MAKE MAINLY TO ENSURE THE SOUNDNESS OF THE HEALTH CARE FUND RATHER THAN TO HELP THE ESSENTIAL AND  CONSTITUTIONALLY BASED AMERICAN INSTITUTION.


LOGISTICS INDUSTRY* -- BARRONS

"LOGISTICS INDUSTRY" IS ONE OF THOSE BUSINESS TERMS THAT SOUNDS LIKE PURE PUFFERY TO ME, BUT THIS ARTICLE ON THE SUBJECT IS VERY ENLIGHTENING. LOGISTICS IN THE BIG WORLD IS A LOT MORE THAN MERE PLANNING. I HAD MAINLY SEEN IT IN TERMS OF WARFARE, AND HAD NEVER SEARCHED FOR A DEFINITION. I HOPE THIS ARTICLE BY FREIGHTWAYS.COM WILL BE AS INTERESTING AS I FIND IT TO BE. IT PUTS TRUCK DRIVERS IN A NEW LIGHT.

LOGISTICS

Dictionary
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lo·gis·tics
/ləˈjistiks/
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Noun

the detailed coordination of a complex operation involving many people, facilities, or supplies.
"the logistics and costs of a vaccination campaign"

Similar: organization, PLANNING

the organization of moving, housing, and supplying troops and equipment.
noun: logistics
the commercial activity of transporting goods to customers.

Translations, word origin, and more definitions

From Oxford


https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-big-is-the-logistics-industry
How big is the logistics industry?
Todd Maiden   Saturday, January 11, 2020

That’s a big question with many moving parts – literally.

The first part of the question is to define logistics. The definition could vary vastly depending on who is asked and what their focus may be. In short, logistics encompasses the physical process of accumulating resources, the transportation or positioning of those resources and the final distribution of resources.

In recent times, the term became commonplace in the military, describing the efforts involved in the acquisition, storage and shipment of supplies, equipment, arsenal, munitions, encampments and soldiers.

What encompasses logistics can be very broad as well and covers essentially everything from a resource’s origin to a finished good’s destination. Most supply chains are highly integrated with varying degrees of automation allowing goods to move seamlessly from mode to mode until destination. Logistics as an industry includes the sourcing of goods, manufacturing, inventory, handling/sortation, transportation, storage/warehousing, etc. Further, logistics expense lines can include IT, in terms of the exchange of information and data, as well as the cost of security.

Logistics can be as simple as a transaction wherein a shipper makes its own product and ships it directly to its customer or more complex involving many layers of handlers in third-party logistics provider (3PL) and brokered transactions. The number of parties on any shipment may extend well beyond just a third party, including 4PLs and on up.

How big is the industry?

Estimates of the size of the global logistics industry range from $8 trillion to $12 trillion annually. The rule of thumb many forecasters use is a percentage of GDP.

In the U.S., some estimate that up to 10% of GDP is attributed to the logistics industry in any given year. Based on economic activity in 2019, the U.S. logistics market is closing in on the $2 trillion level.

Globally, many believe that the logistics market represents approximately 12% of the entire world’s GDP. The disparity in the percentage of GDP used to predict the size of the logistics market has been attributed to the inefficiencies that exist in supply chains in many regions outside of the U.S., creating an elevated cost structure by comparison. 

The global logistics market was $9.6 trillion in 2018, according to research and consulting firm Armstrong & Associates Inc. Trucking accounted for 43% of total logistics costs globally. The costs associated with storing inventory represented one-third with non-trucking modes – maritime, rail and air – under 14% of the total. 

GRAPH
Source: Armstrong & Associates Inc.
The firm is forecasting total global logistics costs to continue to grow at a more than 5% compounded annual growth rate through 2023. The analysis calls for the total market to be more than $12 trillion in 2023.

Other intelligence firms add in costs associated with transportation infrastructure, like roads, ports, rail and airports. Including these investments, some estimate the size of the global logistics industry will exceed $15 trillion by 2023.

What about the U.S.?

In the U.S., 2018 business logistics costs were more than $1.6 trillion, according to data provider Statista. Nearly two-thirds of the cost total was related to transportation, with inventory costs accounting for 30% of the total.

GRAPH
Source: Statista
By mode, trucking dominates transportation spend in the U.S. Inclusive of private fleets and less-than-truckload (LTL), the trucking market is close to $800 million. Through the rise of e-commerce, parcel transportation weighs in as the second-biggest mode behind trucking. Rail, including intermodal rail, comes in at third, accounting for 8% of U.S. freight transportation revenue in 2018.

GRAPH
Source: American Trucking Associations, Stifel estimates and company data
The outsourcing of inventory, distribution and fulfillment to 3PLs has accelerated significantly, especially in the tech and auto sectors. The increased reliance on third parties has resulted in the U.S. 3PL market growing to $213.5 billion in gross revenue in 2018, according to Statista. That is nearly double the level reported in 2009 by the industry.

The U.S. has the largest 3PL market of any one country. However, the Asia-Pacific region has a 3PL market that is roughly 50% larger than that of North America.

In total, global 3PL markets produced $950.7 billion in revenue in 2018.

GRAPH
Source: STATISTA*

Tags airfreight global logistics Less than truckload logistics industry Maritime Parcel rail supply chain logistics Supply chains


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